The ecommerce market accounted for 16.3% of the total retail share in the US in Q2 2025 and experienced a 5.5% YoY growth.
Early projections indicate that the ecommerce market should continue growing steadily through Q3 and Q4, despite the uncertainties and rising prices caused by the repeal of the de minimis tariff exemption.
Even so, American consumers are cutting back on their holiday spending as the average budget is expected to be 10% lower than during the same period in 2024.
Additionally, 77% of consumers in the US expect the prices to rise during the last quarter of 2025, while 44% of shoppers say that tariffs are significantly impacting their purchasing decisions.
The long-term predictions indicate that after the spending surge during the winter holiday season, the majority of consumers plan to spend their discretionary budgets more cautiously in 2026.
Let’s examine how tariffs have impacted online marketplaces in the US and what sellers can expect moving forward.
The state of the ecommerce industry in the US
With the estimated market value of $1.38 trillion, the US is the world’s second-largest ecommerce market in 2025, trailing only China.
Furthermore, multiple sources suggest that the value of the ecommerce market in the US should exceed the $2 trillion threshold by the end of the decade.
The number of consumers who shop online has increased to 288.45 million, representing 84% of the population in 2025, and is expected to exceed 300 million within the next five years.
Over 30% of the country’s shoppers purchased foreign products online in 2025, indicating that the repeal of the de minimis exemption will affect a substantial number of US consumers.
Additionally, low-value imports that weren’t subject to customs duties made up approximately 92% of all US import entries by volume in 2024.
This figure suggests that, in addition to impacting online marketplaces like Temu or Shane, import duties on low-value items are likely to affect small businesses from outside the US that offer their products on eBay, Amazon, Walmart, and other popular digital marketplaces.
Still, it’s difficult to determine the scope of the impact that collecting duties on low-value items will have on consumers in the United States and online sellers who wish to continue selling their products to American consumers.
The immediate impact of the de minimis tariff repeal on American consumers
Several months after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act effectively ended the de minimis treatment, its effect on global trade is still being evaluated.
According to the US Customs and Border Protection, the losses from the Section 321 exemption exceeded $3 billion in annual tariff revenue over the last few years.
Still, it’s unclear whether imposing taxes and customs procedures on small shipments will enable the US government to recover those losses.
The most immediate impact of the repeal of the de minimis provision was financial, as previously duty-free shipments incurred additional costs with a 10% baseline rate.
However, tariff rates vary by product category. For instance, under the new rules, imported goods from the apparel category are now subject to an average tariff rate of 23.8%.
The new customs rules also affect US-based sellers who offer products imported from other countries in their online stores by introducing additional compliance requirements that force sellers to:
- Create 10-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes that classify products based on name, material, and other parameters.
- Supply Entry Type 11 (Informal) or Entry Type 01 (Formal) customs forms together with all the necessary documentation, such as the supplier declaration and Certificate of Origin.
- Calculate the duty rate for each SKU based on the HTSUS code and the item’s country of origin.
Consequently, sellers on online marketplaces are forced to increase product prices due to compliance and financial reasons.
Key trends in the US ecommerce market during the peak sales season
Despite the effect that imposing tariffs on low-value goods has had on American consumers, all signs indicate that the holiday sales season will be lucrative for ecommerce businesses.
According to Adobe’s Holiday Shopping Forecast, online consumers in the US are expected to spend $253.4 billion in November and December of 2025, approximately 5% more than they did during the same period in 2024.
However, the de minimis exemption repeal will have a significant impact on consumer behavior during that time. Many shoppers abandon their carts when presented with additional duty charges and shipping fees, opting instead for domestic US-based alternatives.
As a result, sellers face a strategic decision about whether to transfer the additional costs to buyers or absorb them to eliminate unexpected costs for their customers.
Opting for the Deliver Duty Paid (DDP) option allows sellers to set a fixed price for their products and provide it to potential buyers upfront. Conversely, Deliver Duty Unpaid may deter shoppers despite lower prices due to fees that aren’t included in the product’s price.
Nonetheless, current sales trends suggest that the majority of consumers in the US will seek local alternatives to avoid unexpected costs and preserve their already tight holiday budgets.
The long-term impact of the de minimis repeal on the e-commerce industry in the US
The worldwide repeal of the de minimis tariff exemption arrived almost two years earlier than anticipated, affecting countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the UK, which are among the largest US trading partners after China.
$434.9 billion worth of goods were exported from Canada to the United States in 2024, while during that same year, the US imported roughly $506 billion worth of goods from Mexico.
Additionally, the EU brands exported 531.6 billion worth of goods in 2024 to the US, and a considerable portion of these goods were eligible to enter the country duty-free.
These figures encompass all goods imported into the US from its major trade partners. Still, they also vividly illustrate the scope of imported products present on online marketplaces in the United States.
The long-term forecasts don’t indicate a decrease in the volume of imported items on online marketplaces. Instead, they suggest that most ecommerce businesses will adjust to the new customs regulations by storing their inventories in warehouses in the US and avoiding selling multiple shipments to US consumers from abroad.
Even so, the repeal of the de minimis exemption is expected to increase administrative costs and eliminate the price advantage for sellers based outside the US, effectively ending the supremacy of the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) micro-shipment model.
Financial pain points of the de minimis repeal for online sellers
Although it is expected to level the playing field and enable domestic retailers to reclaim market share, the de minimis exemption repeal will have considerable financial implications for online sellers regardless of their location.
Foreign sellers who relied on duty-free shipping for items previously below the de minimis ceiling can choose to continue offering their products at low prices by transferring the additional costs to consumers.
However, by doing so, they risk losing sales and eroding the trust of their buyers in their brand. Absorbing the costs of ensuring compliance will force international sellers to increase their prices and sacrifice their competitive advantage.
However, bulk importing and storing inventory in warehouses in the US can help online sellers mitigate these costs as it significantly reduces the tariff cost per unit.
The repeal of the de minimis exemption places the administrative burden on ecommerce businesses. It creates permanent compliance costs for sellers, as they must now provide detailed documentation for all postal shipments that previously only required a basic Entry Type 86 manifest.
Moreover, sellers on online marketplaces must cover the costs of obtaining all product documentation, pay customs brokerage fees, and post surety bonds for each low-value shipment, which puts additional financial strain on their businesses.
Reverse logistics and supply chain challenges in the aftermath of the de minimis rule repeal
Sellers who predominantly relied on DTC shipping before the repeal of the de minimis exemption are facing considerable challenges at various junctions of their supply chains.
Aside from generating HTSUS codes, sellers who want to continue using this model are required to submit formal entry documentation, such as CBP Form 7501, which identifies the merchandise entering the US and documents the tax and duty amount paid for that product.
The longer waiting times at the border have caused delivery delays, eroding the profit margins of the micro-parcel fulfillment model.
Consequently, sellers on online marketplaces are expected to transition to bulk inventory shipments that allow them to pay tariffs on a large shipment instead of paying tariffs for each parcel they send to consumers in the US and partner with local logistics providers.
US Customs authorities are scrutinizing each returned item because when a customer returns it to its country of origin, the parcel becomes an export from the US, which subsequently becomes an import to its destination country, potentially incurring additional duties.
This complicates the reverse logistics process for online sellers based outside of the US and cuts even further into their profit margins.
Consequently, to remain competitive on the American online marketplaces in the aftermath of the de minimis rule repeal, ecommerce businesses must find suitable storage options in the US that would allow them to reduce tariff costs and streamline their fulfilment and reverse logistics processes.
Ecommerce in the US in 2026 beyond
Millions of Americans purchase products from online marketplaces every day, and the number of daily online shoppers will grow in the next five years.
So, despite the repeal of the de minimis exemption that marks a historic shift in the country’s foreign trade policy, the US ecommerce market will remain highly profitable in the foreseeable future.
However, the end of the de minimis exemption will have a lasting effect on the ecommerce industry in the US.
After the initial logistics chaos, the repeal of the de minimis exemption is likely to boost domestic sellers, but it will also result in higher prices of items that were previously considered affordable.
Consequently, sellers on eBay, Amazon, and other e-commerce platforms based outside of the US must adapt to these changes quickly and find ways to overcome the regulatory and logistics challenges the de minimis exemption repeal has created.
About Webinterpret
Webinterpret supports merchants selling on eBay.
Our AI-based solutions enable more effective selling through automated listing localization, advertising, and returns and ensure all products placed on EU markets are GPSR-compliant.
By giving your international customers a full, end-to-end local shopping experience, Webinterpret improves your conversion and helps establish your business globally.
